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标题：A statistical look at Modeen's forecast of the population of Finland in 1934
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作者：Juha M. Alho
期刊名称：Finnish Yearbook of Population Research
印刷版ISSN：1796-6191
出版年度：2000
卷号：36
页码：107-120
出版社：Väestöliitto
摘要：Gunnar Modeen made the first cohort-component forecast for Finland in 1934. This was a time when demographic transition was just over, but that fact could not have been known at the time. Would it have made any difference if Modeen had had the tools of modern time-series analysis available? We find that the essential question of how to deal with changing trends would have still been difficult. However; the modern tools would have given the forecast user a realistic indicator of the uncertainty of the forecast being made. This suggests that in developing countries that are undergoing transition now, more effort should he paid to the analysis of uncertainty of forecasting.
关键词：Box-Jenkins; forecast error; historical demography; judgemental methods; time series analysis