文章基本信息

标题：Holiday Destination Choice Behavior Analysis Based on AFC Data of Urban Rail Transit
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作者：Chang-jun Cai ; En-jian Yao ; Sha-sha Liu 等
期刊名称：Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
印刷版ISSN：1026-0226
电子版ISSN：1607-887X
出版年度：2015
卷号：2015
DOI：10.1155/2015/136010
出版社：Hindawi Publishing Corporation
摘要：For urban rail transit, the spatial distribution of passenger flow in holiday usually differs from weekdays. Holiday destination choice behavior analysis is the key to analyze passengers’ destination choice preference and then obtain the OD (origin-destination) distribution of passenger flow. This paper aims to propose a holiday destination choice model based on AFC (automatic fare collection) data of urban rail transit system, which is highly expected to provide theoretic support to holiday travel demand analysis for urban rail transit. First, based on Guangzhou Metro AFC data collected on New Year’s day, the characteristics of holiday destination choice behavior for urban rail transit passengers is analyzed. Second, holiday destination choice models based on MNL (Multinomial Logit) structure are established for each New Year’s days respectively, which takes into account some novel explanatory variables (such as attractiveness of destination). Then, the proposed models are calibrated with AFC data from Guangzhou Metro using WESML (weighted exogenous sample maximum likelihood) estimation and compared with the base models in which attractiveness of destination is not considered. The results show that the values are improved by 0.060, 0.045, and 0.040 for January 1, January 2, and January 3, respectively, with the consideration of destination attractiveness.