文章基本信息

标题：ENSO AND SOYBEAN PRICES: CORRELATION WITHOUT CAUSALITY
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作者：Letson, David ; McCullough, B.D.
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2001
页码：513-521
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：In this paper we seek to characterize the robustness of the ENSO/soybean price relationship and to determine whether it has practical economic content. If such a meaningful relationship exists, the implications could be profound for commodity traders and for public sector investments in climate forecasting capabilities. Also, the validity of economic evaluations of climate impacts and climate forecasts based on ENSO-price independence would come into question. Our findings suggest a relationship between interannual climate and soybean prices, although we are not able to attribute the relationship to ENSO or to say the ENSO is economically important.
关键词：climate forecasting;Granger causality;spectral analysis;SOI;SST