文章基本信息

标题：The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss
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作者：Auffhammer, Maximilian
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2005
期号：suppl
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.
关键词：forecasting;asymmetric loss;energy intensity;Energy Information Administration