文章基本信息

标题：Agricultural Production with Change and Uncertainty: A Temporal Case Study Simulation of Colorado Potato Beetle
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作者：Heikkila, Jaakko ; Peltola, Jukka
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2005
期号：suppl
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：Changes in climatic and policy environments combined with uncertainty related to stochastic environmental fluctuations make design of invasive pest policy challenging. These external changes are often exacerbated by changes in the species characteristics. We discuss facing local change and uncertainty when deciding ex ante on a specific policy strategy. Our empirical case deals with an invasive agricultural pest, Colorado potato beetle, and agricultural production in Finland. Invasions are modelled as temporally random events and stochasticity in key variables is built into the analysis. The viability of two specific policy options is evaluated given uncertainty and local change.
关键词：Colorado potato beetle;protected zone;zone protegee;invasive alien species