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  • 标题:Imperfect rationality and inflationary inertia: a new estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Fasolo, Angelo Marsiglia ; Portugal, Marcelo Savino
  • 期刊名称:Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)
  • 印刷版ISSN:0101-4161
  • 电子版ISSN:1980-5357
  • 出版年度:2004
  • 卷号:34
  • 期号:4
  • 页码:725-776
  • DOI:10.1590/S0101-41612004000400004
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da FEA-USP
  • 摘要:

    This paper presents some new estimates for the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Brazil based on a new Keynesian hypothesis about the behavior of the economy. Four main hypotheses are tested and sustained throughout the study: i) agents do not have perfect rationality; ii) the imperfection in the agents expectations generating process may be an important factor in explaining the high persistence (inertia) of Brazilian inflation; iii) inflation does have an autonomous inertial component, without linkage to shocks in individual markets; iv) a non-linear relationship between inflation and unemployment is able to provide better explanations for the inflation-unemployment relationship in the Brazilian economy in the last 12 years. While the first two hypotheses are tested using a Markov Switching based model of regime changes, the remaining two are tested in a context of a convex Phillips Curve estimated using the Kalman filter. Despite the methodological and estimation improvements provided in the paper, the impulse-response functions for the monetary policy presented the same properties shown in the literature that uses Brazilian data.

  • 关键词:curva de Phillips;expectativas;inflação;hiato do desemprego;modelos markovianos;filtro de Kalman;SUR
  • 其他关键词:Phillips curve;expectations;inflation;NAIRU-gap;Markov switching models;Kalman filter;SUR
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