文章基本信息

标题：Temporal, probabilistic mapping of ash clouds using wind field stochastic variability and uncertain eruption source parameters: Example of the 14 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption
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作者：E. R. Stefanescu ; A. K. Patra ; M. I. Bursik 等
期刊名称：Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
电子版ISSN：1942-2466
出版年度：2014
卷号：6
期号：4
页码：1-12
DOI：10.1002/2014MS000332
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
摘要：Uncertainty in predictions from a model of volcanic ash transport in the atmosphere arises from uncertainty in both eruption source parameters and the model wind field. In a previous contribution, we analyzed the probability of ash cloud presence using weighted samples of volcanic ash transport and dispersal model runs and a reanalysis wind field to propagate uncertainty in eruption source parameters alone. In this contribution, the probabilistic modeling is extended by using ensemble forecast wind fields as well as uncertain source parameters. The impact on ash transport of variability in wind fields due to unresolved scales of motion as well as model physics uncertainty is also explored. We have therefore generated a weighted, probabilistic forecast of volcanic ash transport with only a priori information, exploring uncertainty in both the wind field and the volcanic source.
关键词：uncertainty quantification;ash cloud;ash plume;numerical weather prediction;forecast;ash transport model