文章基本信息

标题：Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An Application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector
本地全文：下载
作者：Bastianin, Andrea
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2009
期号：suppl
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：In this paper I have used copula functions to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an equally weighted portfolio comprising a small cap stock index and a large cap stock index for the oil and gas industry. The following empirical questions have been analyzed: (i) are there nonnormalities in the marginals? (ii) are there nonnormalities in the dependence structure? (iii) is it worth modelling these nonnormalities in risk- management applications? (iv) do complicated models perform better than simple models? As for questions (i) and (ii) I have shown that the data do deviate from the null of normality at the univariate, as well as at the multivariate level. When considering the dependence structure of the data I have found that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting exercise has shown that models based on Normal marginals and/or with symmetric dependence structure fail to deliver accurate VaR forecasts. These findings confirm the importance of nonnormalities and asymmetries both in-sample and out-of-sample.
关键词：Copula functions;Forecasting;Value-At-Risk