文章基本信息

标题：Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area
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作者：Welch, J. Mark ; Mkrtchyan, Vardan ; Power, Gabriel J. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2009
期号：suppl
页码：49-63
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：Shifting patterns of corn use as a result of the ethanol boom may be causing basis levels to change across the United States, creating the need for methods to predict basis levels in dynamic conditions. This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results show the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.
关键词：basis;corn;grain marketing;Texas Triangle Area