文章基本信息

标题：MODEL APPLICATIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF NEW PRODUCTS IN HUNGARIAN MARKET CIRCUMSTANCES
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作者：Orova, Irma ; Komaromi, Nandor
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2008
期号：suppl
页码：433-444
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：Getting a new product adopted - even if it has obvious advantages - is difficult. Many innovations require a long period from the time they become available to the time they are widely adopted. This study was conducted to determine some characteristics of new product diffusion processes in Hungarian market circumstances and compare them with the international findings. Having studied a wide variety of diffusion models applied in marketing, the Bass (1969) model seems to be internationally adopted. The parameter values of this model for different products in several countries are available in relative studies. The diffusion of different products were investigated on Hungarian statistical data (e.g. automobile, camcorder, subscription of cellular phone) and on own paper as well as WEB based surveys (e.g. pen drive, organic bread). I found my results close to Christophe Van den Blute’s in the case of the innovation coefficient (0,016). The values of the imitation coefficient are very variant for the Hungarian data series, it is only the camcorder that is similar to the reference value (0.40), but the imitation effect proved extremely high in the case of the pen drive and cellular phone. The Bass model is sensitive for the long, slowly rising data series. Nonlinear regression is an effective way in some cases. This work led comparison between subway methods as well.
关键词：forecasting;diffusion models;regression analyses