文章基本信息

标题：Equiprobable Growth Model and Growth Cycles: An Approximation to Persistence and Volatility
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作者：Zeus Salvador Hernández Veleros
期刊名称：Ciencia Ergo Sum
印刷版ISSN：1405-0269
出版年度：2008
卷号：15
期号：1
页码：21-34
语种：English
出版社：Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México
摘要：This paper proposes an innovative approach, based on the multinomial distribution and on the equiprobable growth model, to define and characterize growth cycles during the period 1950-2000, for 142 countries by using three regimes of growth for seven cluster of economies, and from these growth cycles, we obtained the long term trend. Through bootstrap we contrast the main hypothesis of the paper by means of the expected value of the chosen regimes.
其他摘要：This paper proposes an innovative approach, based on the multinomial distribution and on the equiprobable growth model, to define and characterize growth cycles during the period 1950-2000, for 142 countries by using three regimes of growth for seven cluster of economies, and from these growth cycles, we obtained the long term trend. Through bootstrap we contrast the main hypothesis of the paper by means of the expected value of the chosen regimes.
关键词：growth cycles; trend; multinomial distribution; clustering; bootstrap. ciclos de crecimiento; tendencia de largo plazo; distribución multinomial; análisi...