文章基本信息

标题：A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach
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作者：Kaminski, Jonathan ; Kan, Iddo ; Fleischer, Aliza 等
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2011
期号：Suppl
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：This article proposes a proactive approach for analyzing agricultural adaptation to climate change based on a structural land-use model wherein farmers maximize profit by allocating their land between crop-technology bundles. The profitability of the bundles is a function of four technological attributes via which climate variables‟ effect is channeled: yield potential; input requirements; yields' sensitivity to input use; and farm-level management costs. Proactive adaptation measures are derived by identifying the technological attributes via which climate variables reduce overall agricultural profitability, despite adaptation by land reallocation among bundles. By applying the model to Israel, we find that long-term losses stem from yield potential reductions driven by forecasted increases in temperature, implying that adaptation efforts should target more heat-tolerant crop varieties and technologies.
关键词：adaptation;agricultural land use;climate change;crop-technology bundles