文章基本信息

标题：Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals
本地全文：下载
作者：Araujo, Claudio ; Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine ; Brunelin, Stephanie 等
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2011
期号：Suppl
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：The aim of this paper is to exploit grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify which markets play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period proceeding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements on "leading markets" during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future crises.
关键词：Food security;Africa;Niger;early warning systems;discrete choice panel model