文章基本信息

标题：Demographic Dividends Revisited
本地全文：下载
作者：Jeffrey G. Williamson
期刊名称：Asian Development Review
印刷版ISSN：0116-1105
电子版ISSN：1996-7241
出版年度：2013
卷号：30
期号：2
页码：1-25
DOI：10.1162/ADEV_a_00013
出版社：MIT Press
摘要：This paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost 2 decades of debate. In 1998, David Bloom and I used a convergence model to estimate the impact of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the literature has come to call the “demographic dividend.” These early estimates seem to be similar to those coming from more recent overlapping generation models, when properly estimated. Research has shown that the demographic dividend is not simply a labor participation rate effect, but also a growth effect. Life-cycle savings, investment deepening, foreign capital flows, and schooling have all been greatly affected by the demographic transition. The paper discusses just how much of these positive growth effects are based on accelerating human capital accumulation induced by demand-side quality–quantity trade-offs versus a co-movement between demographic transitions and public schooling supply-side expansions. Since emigration has been driven in part by demography, it has wasted some of the demographic dividend by brain drain. In addition, within-country rural–urban migrations have also been driven in part by demographic transitions with different spatial timing. Finally, the paper shows how lifetime—not just annual—income inequality has been influenced by demographic transitions.
关键词：demographic transitions; demographic dividends; growth; inequality; Asia; J10; O11; O15; O40; O53