文章基本信息

标题：Would a Growth Slowdown in Emerging Markets Spill Over to High-income Countries?
本地全文：下载
作者：Patrice Ollivaud ; Elena Rusticelli ; Cyrille Schwellnus 等
期刊名称：Economics Department Working Papers / OECD
印刷版ISSN：0259-4633
出版年度：2014
卷号：2014
DOI：10.1787/5jz5m89p82d8-en
出版社：Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
摘要：Growth in emerging market economies (EMEs) is set to durably slow from the rates observed over 2010-12 as cyclical effects fade, potential growth declines and external financing conditions tighten. Large negative current account balances make some EMEs vulnerable to sudden reversals in capital flows while exceptionally rapid credit expansions, as those observed in Brazil, China, Poland and Turkey over the past years, may have raised financial risk. This paper assesses recent developments and vulnerabilities in EMEs and uses macroeconometric model simulations to provide quantitative estimates of spillovers to highincome countries. The results suggest that for each slowdown of 2 percentage points in EMEs, highincome countries’ growth could be around ⅔ percentage points lower on average, with around ½ percentage point accounted for by trade. Experience with past EME crises suggests that this could be exacerbated by effects from exchange rates and by financial market turbulence. OECD countries which would be hit hardest include Belgium, Japan and the Netherlands, reflecting mainly strong trade linkages with EMEs.
关键词：growth; trade; spillovers; emerging markets