文章基本信息

标题：Analysing impacts of changing price variability with estimated farm risk-programming models
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作者：Jansson, Torbjörn ; Heckelei, Thomas ; Gocht, Alexander 等
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2014
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：We formulate and estimate a farm level simulation model of agricultural crop production, and apply it to a scenario with increasing yield variability. The objective function is of the mean-variance utility type with a positive mathematical programming (PMP) cost function, and it is estimated using the optimality conditions and a large panel data set obtained from the FADN. Special attention is given to the problem of separating the effect of the covariance matrix from that of the quadratic PMP terms. The model is applied in a partial analysis of impacts of climate change in Germany by exogenously changing yield patterns.
关键词：Climate change;positive mathematical programming;risk;Bayesian econometrics;FADN