文章基本信息

标题：Struggling with Uncertainty: The State of Global Agri-Food Sector in 2030
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作者：Lakner, Zoltan ; Baker, Gregory A. ; IFAMR, IFAMA 等
期刊名称：Journal of Agribusiness
印刷版ISSN：0738-8950
出版年度：2014
页码：141-176
出版社：Journal of Agribusiness
摘要：Multiple tools, including surveys, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and cross-impact analysis were employed to identify likely scenarios for the agri-food system in 2030. A principal finding of the research is that global warming is perceived as almost inevitable and will lead to major changes in global food production, processing, and trade. However, the dynamic nature of the food chain offers many possibilities to mitigate the negative supply system impacts of global warming through efficiencies gained by increasing firm concentration in the agri-food sector through the application of biotechnology, or adaptations in local food production.
关键词：Scenario analysis;expert opinion;global food system;exploratory factor analysis;confirmatory factor analysis;Smic-Prob-Expert