文章基本信息

标题：Changes in the effects of heat on mortality among the elderly from 1998–2010: results from a multicenter time series study in Italy
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作者：Patrizia Schifano ; Michela Leone ; Manuela De Sario 等
期刊名称：Environmental Health - a Global Access Science Source
印刷版ISSN：1476-069X
电子版ISSN：1476-069X
出版年度：2012
卷号：11
期号：1
页码：58
DOI：10.1186/1476-069X-11-58
语种：English
出版社：BioMed Central
摘要：This multicenter study is aimed at estimating changes in the effect of high temperatures on elderly mortality before and after the 2003 heat waves and following the introduction of heat prevention activities. A total of sixteen cities were included in the study. City-specific relationships between maximum apparent temperature (MAT) and elderly daily mortality before (1998–2002) and after (2006–2010) intervention were modelled through non-linear distributed lag models and estimates were combined using a random effect meta-analysis. We estimated the percentage change in daily mortality for 3°C variations in MAT above the 25th percentile of the June city-specific 1998–2002 distribution. A time-varying analysis was carried out to describe intra-seasonal variations in the two periods. We observed a reduction in high temperatures’ effect post intervention; the greatest reduction was for increases in temperature from 9°C to 12°C above the 25th percentile, with a decrease from +36.7% to +13.3%. A weak effect was observed for temperatures up to 3°C above the 25th percentile only after. Changes were month-specific with a reduction in August and an increase in May, June and September in 2006–2010. A change in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed, attributable to variations in temperature distributions during summer and to the introduction of adaptation measures. The reduction in the effect of high temperature suggests that prevention programs can mitigate the impact. An effect of lower temperature remains, indicating a relevant impact of temperature at the beginning of summer when the population has not yet adapted and intervention activities are not fully operational.
关键词：Prevention plan ; Heat ; Non linear model ; Mortality ; Elderly