文章基本信息

标题：Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy
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作者：Zhong, Yun Ying ; Hara Ph.D., Tadayuki
期刊名称：Hospitality Review
印刷版ISSN：0739-7011
出版年度：2013
卷号：31
期号：1
页码：1
出版社：Florida International University
摘要：The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.
关键词：Tourism Impact Analysis; Input-Output Model; Economic Crisis; Modeling Accuracy; Negative Shock