文章基本信息

标题：Prediction on Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Urban Residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period: Based on Estimates of GM (1,1) Model
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作者：Zheng, Yan-min ; Zhang, Yan-cai ; Xu, Hong-feng 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2011
页码：38-45
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：This paper takes the total yield of products that need refrigerated transport as the impact factors of transport aggregate of cold chain logistics, such as meat, aquatic products, quick-frozen noodle, fruits, vegetables, dairy, and medicine. Through selecting the consumption data of urban residents on transported products via cold chain in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2000 as sample, this paper establishes grey prediction model GM(1, 1 ) of cold chain logistics demand and uses DPS7.05 software for test, to predict the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. The results show that in the period 2010-2015, the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province is 1 151.589 1, 1 185.136 6, 1 219.661 3, 1 255.191 8, 1 291.757 3, 1 329.388 1 t respectively; in the period 2005-2010, me cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province increases at annual growth rate of 3.9%; in the period 2011-2015, the growth rate declines to some extent, increasing slowly at rate of 2.9%.
关键词：Cold chain logistics demand;The Twelfth Five-Year Plan;Jiangsu Province;Grey prediction model;China