文章基本信息

标题：Switching to Perennial Energy Crops under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility
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作者：Song, Feng ; Zhao, Jinhua ; Swinton, Scott M. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2009
卷号：40
期号：12
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：We study a farmer’s decision to convert traditional crop land into growing dedicated energy crops, taking in account sunk conversion costs, uncertainties in traditional and energy crop returns, and learning. The optimal decision rules differ significantly from the expected net present value rule, which ignores learning, and from real option models that allow only one way conversions into energy crops. These models also predict drastically different patterns of land conversions into and out of energy crops over time. Using corn-soybean rotations and switchgrass as examples, we show that the model predictions are sensitive to assumptions about stochastic processes of the returns. Government policies might have unintended consequences: subsidizing conversion costs into switchgrass reduces proportions of land in switchgrass in the long run.
关键词：real options;irreversibility;sunk costs;land conversion;biofuel;cellulosic biomass;dynamic modeling;stochastic process;biofuel policy