文章基本信息

标题：Ethanol Plant Investment using Net Present Value and Real Options Analyses
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作者：Schmit, Todd M. ; Luo, Jianchuan ; Tauer, Loren W. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2008
卷号：39
期号：8
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：A real option analysis of dry-grind corn ethanol plants compared to a standard net present value analysis (NPV) shows that the option values increase entry prices and lower exit prices of investment and disinvestment considerably. For a large plant, the gross margin of ethanol price over the corn price for a gallon of ethanol using NPV shows that entry will occur with a $0.45 margin and shutdown will occur at a $0.38. Under a real options framework, the margins for entry and exit become $1.33 and $0.13, respectively. Under baseline conditions, a large operating plant would become mothballed at $0.18 and reactivate if margins rebounded to $0.66. Growth in the variability of ethanol margins will delay new plant investments, as well as exits of currently operating facilities.
关键词：Ethanol;Net Present Value;Real Options Analyses