文章基本信息

标题：The Impact of Energy Markets on the EU Agricultural Sector
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作者：Tokgoz, Simla
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2008
卷号：39
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of crude oil prices on the EU-27 agricultural sector in an era when the biofuels sector is expanding because of the policy initiatives taken by the EU Commission and member states. To this end, first a baseline is set up for the EU-27 ethanol, grain, and dried distillers grains markets. In the next step, two different scenarios are run. The first scenario incorporates a $10- per-barrel increase in the EU-27 crude oil price with the ethanol import tariffs in place. The second scenario incorporates the same shock with the ethanol import tariffs removed. In the first scenario, higher crude oil prices increase ethanol consumption, production, and therefore grain prices. In the second scenario, the impact of trade liberalisation is larger than the impact of the higher crude oil price. So, grain prices decline in this scenario despite an expansion in ethanol consumption. If there were a high enough crude oil price shock, which would affect the EU-27 ethanol market more than trade liberalisation, the net impact on grain, feed, and food prices from the crude oil price shock would be mitigated by the increased trade from trade liberalisation. The study shows that the impact of energy prices on the EU-27 agricultural sector is increasing with the emergence of the biofuels sector. It also illustrates the importance of trade policy in responding to higher crude oil and grain prices.
关键词：Ethanol;energy prices;trade liberalisation