文章基本信息

标题：Future of European agriculture after the Health Check
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作者：Banse, Martin ; Helming, John F.M. ; Nowicki, Peter 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2008
卷号：39
期号：SUPPL
页码：156-164
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resulting from them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is an analysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under the assumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the Doha Development Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (no support) and regionalization (maximum support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows that the structural change process in agriculture (measured in terms of agricultural share in GDP) is a long-term process that continues with or without policy changes. The EU is facing an increasing diversity of structure and structural adjustment. The livestock sector (especially cattle) faces important challenges and restructuring. Alternative policy settings may not produce very different effect on the overall production as factor markets adjust. However, the regional impact on the environment and on the number of farms may prove to be more significant.
关键词：economic modelling;future;CAP policy options;structural change