文章基本信息

标题：Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract
本地全文：下载
作者：Musshoff, Oliver ; Hirschauer, Norbert
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2008
卷号：39
期号：SUPPL
页码：17-36
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Investment decisions are not only characterised by irreversibility and uncertainty but also by flexibility with regard to the timing of the investment. This paper describes how stochastic simulation can be successfully integrated into a backward recursive programming approach in the context of flexible investment planning. We apply this hybrid approach to a marketing question from primary production which can be viewed as an investment problem: should grain farmers purchase sales contracts which guarantee fixed product prices over the next 10 years? The model results support the conclusion from dynamic investment theory that it is essential to take simultaneously account of uncertainty and flexibility.
关键词：dynamic programming;flexibility;investment;sales contract;stochastic simulation;uncertainty