文章基本信息

标题：Resilience, Uncertainty, and the Role of Economics in Ecosystem Management
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作者：Brozovic, Nicholas ; Schlenker, Wolfram
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2007
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Many natural systems have the potential to switch between alternative dynamic behaviors. We consider a system with two distinct equations of motion that are separated by a threshold value of the state variable. We show that utility maximization will give a decision making rule that is consistent with ecosystem-based management objectives that aim to reduce the probability that the system crosses the threshold. Moreover, we find that increasing uncertainty (both uncertainty embedded in the natural system and uncertainty of the decision maker about the location of the threshold) can lead to nonmonotonic changes in precaution. Although small increases in uncertainty may at first increase precaution, large enough increases in uncertainty will lead to a decrease in precaution.