文章基本信息

标题：Climate Policy When the Distant Future Matters: Catastrophic Events with Hyperbolic Discounting
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作者：Karp, Larry S. ; Tsur, Yacov
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2007
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a significant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.
关键词：abrupt climate change;event uncertainty;catastrophic risk;hyperbolic discounting;Markov Perfect Equilibria