文章基本信息

标题：Including Risk in Economic Feasibility Analyses: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas
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作者：Richardson, James W. ; Herbst, Brian K. ; Outlaw, Joe L. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2007
期号：SUPPL
页码：115-132
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：The widespread use of personal computers and spreadsheet models for feasibility studies makes risk-based Monte Carlo simulation analysis of proposed investments a relatively simple task. Add-in simulation packages for Microsoft® Excel can be used to make spreadsheet models stochastic. Rather than basing investment decisions on point estimates, investors can easily estimate the implied distributions of returns for uncertain investments and calculate the risk of an investment as well as the probability of success. The benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation to analyze a risky investment are demonstrated using an ethanol plant as an example.
关键词：economic feasibility analysis;ethanol feasibility;risk management;stochastic simulation