文章基本信息

标题：MODELLING LONG-TERM COMMODITIES: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN WINE INDUSTRY WITHIN A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK
本地全文：下载
作者：Cutts, Michela ; Reynolds, Sanri ; Meyer, Ferdinand H. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2007
卷号：38
期号：12
页码：1-21
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Econometric demand and supply models of agricultural commodities and crops have been around for a long time with extensive research and adaptations being made in the grain and livestock sectors. This much attention has, however, not been afforded to long term commodities. This paper presents a partial equilibrium framework for modelling long term commodities using the South African wine industry as an example. The model structure and important assumptions are presented, after which the usefulness of the model is tested in the form of baseline projections and the analysis of a typical “what if” question. The wine model presented in this paper is housed and maintained in the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) at the Department of Agriculture, Western Cape and the Universities of Pretoria and Stellenbosch.
关键词：wine market;South Africa;partial equilibrium model