文章基本信息

标题：Multiple Horizons and Information in USDA Production Forecasts
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作者：Sanders, Dwight R. ; Manfredo, Mark R.
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2006
卷号：37
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：USDA livestock production forecasts are evaluated for information across multiple horizons using the direct test developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez. Forecasts are explicitly tested for rationality (unbiased and efficient) as well as for incremental information out to three quarters ahead. The results suggest that although the forecasts are often not rational, they typically do provide the forecast user with unique information at each horizon. Turkey and milk production forecasts tended to provide the most consistent performance, while beef production forecasts provided little information beyond the two quarter horizon.