文章基本信息

标题：An Operational Approach for Evaluating Investment Risk: An Application to the No-Till Transition
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作者：Upadhyay, Bharat Mani ; Young, Douglas L.
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2005
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Roy's safety-first rule is used to provide measures popular with farmers of short and long term business risk associated with various no-till transition strategies over an investment horizon. The short run rule provided more sensitivity to inter-year financial risk than other commonly used criteria. Results revealed that speed of adoption influenced the probability of successful transition more than did the sequence of drill acquisition methods. Higher equity and larger farms had a greater chance of transition success. Slow acreage expansion with a custom or rental drill reduces risk until a no-till yield penalty is eliminated.
关键词：investment risk;Monte Carlo simulation;no-till;rent-purchase;risk;safety-first;technology adoption;transition strategy