文章基本信息

标题：THE PROFITABILITY OF TECHNICAL TRADING RULES IN US FUTURES MARKETS: A DATA SNOOPING FREE TEST
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作者：Park, Cheol-Ho ; Irwin, Scott H.
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2004
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Numerous empirical studies have investigated the profitability of technical trading rules in a wide variety of markets, and many of them found positive profits. Despite positive evidence about profitability and improvements in testing procedures, skepticism about technical trading profits remains widespread among academics mainly due to data snooping problems. This research tries to mitigate the problems by confirming the results of a previous study and then replicating the original testing procedure on new data. Results indicate that for various futures contracts and technical trading systems tested, technical trading profits have gradually declined over time. In general, substantial technical trading profits in the early 1980s are no longer available in the subsequent period.