文章基本信息

标题：Monte Carlos Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications
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作者：Anderson, Michael A. ; Ferrantino, Michael J. ; Schaefer, Kurt C. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2004
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Many improvements have been proposed for the basic gravity model specification, most of which are confirmed by standard statistical tests due to the large number of observations often used to estimate such models. We use Monte Carlo experiments to examine situations in which features of models may be found statistically significant (or insignificant) when it is known ex ante that they are absent (or present) in the underlying data process. Erroneous assumptions about the presence or absence of lagged dependent variables, fixed effects, free-trade associations and customs unions are shown to introduce economically important bias in estimates of the coefficients of interest, and in some cases to be confirmed spuriously. Policy effects, such as for free trade associations and currency unions, can also be confirmed spuriously when they do not exist in the data-generating process.