文章基本信息

标题：The Causality Between U.S.A. and Australian Wheat Prices
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作者：Sniekers, Peter ; Wong, Gordon
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：1987
页码：37-50
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：It has been generally agreed that Australia is a price follower on the world wheat market. However, to date, this has not been tested empirically. In this paper a transfer function model between prices of U.S.A. wheat and Australian wheat is set up to examine the existence, if any, of a leader-follower relationship. By employing the causality criteria as described by Granger, this analysis is implemented to draw inferences about causality among these wheat prices. Results indicated that a significant leader-follower relationship exists, with the U.S.A. taking the leader role. The results reported are particularly useful for wheat price forecasting work and provide a basis for further modelling work.