文章基本信息

标题：OPTIMAL USE OF QUALITATIVE MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO COUNTRY GRAIN ELEVATOR BANKRUPTCIES
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作者：Kaylen, Michael S. ; Devino, Gary T. ; Procter, Michael H. 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：1988
页码：119-125
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Qualitative models can be used for decision making under uncertainty. This provides a useful framework for evaluating the models. If the costs for every action/state of nature combination are known, decisions made using a well-calibrated model would result in actual costs being close to expected costs. In addition, the actual cost can be compared to the cost of perfect foresight actions, giving a bound on the value of a better model. Application of these procedures is made using a logit model developed to predict Missouri country grain elevator bankruptcy.