文章基本信息

标题：Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method
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作者：Golan, Amos ; Perloff, Jeffrey M.
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2002
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：We use a nonlinear, nonparametric method to forecast the unemployment rates. We compare these forecasts to several linear and nonlinear parametric methods based on the work of Montgomery et al. (1998) and Carruth et al. (1998). Our main result is that, due to the nonlinearity in the data generating process, the nonparametric method outperforms many other wellknown models, even when these models use more information. This result holds for forecasts based on quarterly and on monthly data.
关键词：embedding dimension;nonlinearity;nonparametric;unemployment rate