文章基本信息

标题：MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF RACEHORSE EARNINGS AND PROFITABILITY
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作者：Vinzant, Patrick L. ; Neibergs, J. Shannon
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：1999
期号：SUPPL
页码：37-48
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：Thoroughbred racehorses are commonly characterized as unprofitable investments. Previous studies, grouping all racehorses together, estimate that over 80% of all racehorses in training fail to earn enough to recover the variable costs of training. However, these studies are not truly representative, because they fail to account for a number of factors affecting profitability. This study estimates expected purse earnings and profitability of claiming horses in Kentucky. Maximum-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a mean of $25,267. Profitability is best described by a Gamma distribution with a mean of $4,824. Of the 305 claims analyzed for profitability, 61% were profitable. The results indicate substantial financial risk associated with claiming race horses, but conclude that there are positive economic returns on average.
关键词：claiming horses;financial risk;maximum likelihood;probability;profitability;thoroughbred