文章基本信息

标题：A Quality-Adjusted Cost Index for Estimating Future Consumer Surplus from Innovation
本地全文：下载
作者：Austin, David H. ; MacAuley, Molly K.
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：1998
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：This paper describes a model for estimating, in a probabilistic framework, expectedfuture consumer surplus from planned new product innovations. The model has been appliedto estimations of taxpayer benefits from NASA's New Millenium Program (NMP), whichdevelops new technologies for space science, and to the digital data storage technologiesbeing supported by the Department of Commerce's Advanced Technology Program (ATP).The model uses cost index methods based on consumers' estimated marginal valuation forquality improvements in the technology. Probabilistic values for performance increases aretaken from the innovators' own expectations. The analysis reveals the sensitivity of welfareincreases to these values, which are assumed to be biased upward. The cost index, whencombined with an expected rate of adoption, estimates consumer benefits from the innovation,gross of its research and development costs. Benefits are estimated net of a dynamic baselinedefined by the best available substitute technology, which is also assumed to improve overtime. Findings are therefore expressed in terms of the economic value of the innovation toconsumers, compared to advances that might occur in the absence of the NMP or ATPinvestments.Illustrative results--estimated cost indices and 95% confidence bounds--are presentedfor technologies that are expected to improve consumer welfare and for those that, on aquality-adjusted cost basis, are likely to be outperformed by the selected baseline technology.
关键词：quality-adjusted cost index; consumer surplus; innovation