文章基本信息

标题：ENSO Forecast Value, Variable Climate and Stochastic Prices
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作者：Letson, David ; Podesta, Guillermo ; Messina, Carlos 等
期刊名称：Journal of Food Distribution Research
印刷版ISSN：0047-245X
出版年度：2001
期号：SUPPL
出版社：Food Distribution Research Society
摘要：We evaluate ENSO forecasts when prices are variable and ENSO is a portion of overall climatic variability. Forecast responses include crop mix, cultivar,fertilization, and planting date. Price changes reduce forecast value by excluding responses. Predictable income variability (ENSO-related), as a share of the total, evaluates forecast skill.