文章基本信息

标题：A comparison of a deterministic and stochastic model for Hepatitis C with an isolation stage
本地全文：下载
作者：Mudassar Imran ; Muhammad Hassan ; Muhammad Dur-E-Ahmad 等
期刊名称：Journal of Biological Dynamics
印刷版ISSN：1751-3758
电子版ISSN：1751-3766
出版年度：2013
卷号：7
期号：1
页码：276-301
DOI：10.1080/17513758.2013.859856
出版社：Taylor & Francis
摘要：We formulate a deterministic epidemic model for the spread of Hepatitis C containing an acute, chronic and isolation class and analyse the effects of the isolation class on the transmission dynamics of the disease. We calculate the basic reproduction number R 0 and show that for R 0 ≤1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. In addition, it is shown that for a special case when R 0 >1, the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, an analogous stochastic epidemic model for Hepatitis C is formulated using a continuous time Markov chain. Numerical simulations are used to estimate the mean, variance and probability distributions of the discrete random variables and these are compared to the steady-state solutions of the deterministic model. Finally, the expected time to disease extinction is estimated for the stochastic model and the impact of isolation on the time to extinction is explored.
关键词：epidemiology; Hepatitis C; deterministic model; stochastic model