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  • 标题:Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Philip J Ward ; Brenden Jongman ; Frederiek Sperna Weiland
  • 期刊名称:Environmental Research Letters
  • 印刷版ISSN:1748-9326
  • 电子版ISSN:1748-9326
  • 出版年度:2013
  • 卷号:8
  • 期号:4
  • 页码:044019
  • DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:IOP Publishing Ltd
  • 摘要:Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures.
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