文章基本信息

标题：Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011
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作者：Stefan Rahmstorf ; Grant Foster ; Anny Cazenave 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2012
卷号：7
期号：4
页码：044035
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low.