文章基本信息

标题：Very early warning of next El Niño
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作者：Josef Ludescher ; Avi Gozolchiani ; Mikhail I. Bogachev 等
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2014
卷号：111
期号：6
页码：2064-2066
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1323058111
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：The most important driver of climate variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Nino event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Nino in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Nino to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.
关键词：dynamic networks ; ENSO ; spring barrier