文章基本信息

标题：Transparency and predictability in monetary policy
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作者：Tom Bernhardsen ; Arne Kloster
期刊名称：Economic Bulletin / Norges Bank
印刷版ISSN：0029-1676
电子版ISSN：1503-8831
出版年度：2002
期号：2
出版社：Norges Bank
摘要：By being open about its policy response pattern, the central bank allows economic agents to understand theimplementation of monetary policy. They will then be able to anticipate the central bank's interest rate decisionsto a fairly large extent. Transparency and predictability can contribute to strengthening monetary policycredibility and enhance its effectiveness. This article assesses the predictability of Norges Bank's interest ratesetting since 1999, and includes a comparison with a number of other countries. Changes in money marketrates after the monetary policy meetings are used as an indication of whether the decisions surprised marketparticipants. The study indicates that interest rate decisions in Norway have surprised market participantssomewhat more than in other countries, particularly in 2001. This may be because the economic situation hasbeen fairly different in Norway compared with other countries. In addition, the inflation target was intro-duced relatively recently in Norway. Over time, however, it is the actual inflation developments that are decisivefor monetary policy credibility. Long-term indicators show that inflation expectations in Norway are close tothe inflation target