文章基本信息

标题：Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area
本地全文：下载
作者：Frank Smets ; Anders Warne ; Raf Wouters 等
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2013
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the “noise” approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the “news” approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated over the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model and a random walk.
关键词：Bayesian methods; DSGE model; real-time database; Survey of Professional Forecasters; macroeconomic forecasting; estimated New Keynesian model; euro area.