文章基本信息

标题：Business cycle synchronisation: disentangling trade and financial linkages
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作者：Stéphane Dées ; Nico Zorell
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2011
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisa- tion and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and nancial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation. Overall, our results conrm that trade integration fosters business cycle synchronisation. Similar patterns of sectoral specialisation also lead to closer business cycle co-movement. By contrast, it remains di¢ cult to nd a direct relationship between bilateral nancial linkages and output correlation. However, our results suggest that nancial integration a¤ects business cycle synchronisation indirectly by raising the similarity in sec- toral specialisation. Through this indirect link, nancial integration tends to raise business cycle comovement between countries.
关键词：International transmission of shocks; Financial integra-;tion; International business cycle.