文章基本信息

标题：Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: evidence for the United States and the euro area
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作者：Stéphane Dées ; Pedro Soares Brinca
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2011
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 nancial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of condence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United States and the euro area. It shows under which circumstances condence indicators can be a good predictor of household consumption even after controlling for information in economic fundamentals. Overall, the results show that the consumer condence index can be in certain circumstances a good predictor of consumption. In particular, out-of-sample evidence shows that the contribution of condence in explaining consumption expenditures increases when household survey indicators feature large changes, so that condence indicators can have some increasing predictive power during such episodes. Moreover, there is some evidence of a condence channelin the international transmission of shocks, as U.S. condence indices lead consumer sentiment in the euro area
关键词：Consumer Condence; Consumption; International Linkages; Non-linear modeling.