文章基本信息

标题：Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin
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作者：Fabio Canova ; Matteo Ciccarelli
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2011
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate the similarities of macroeconomic 􀀠uctuations in theMediterranean basin and their convergence. A model with three indicators, covering the West, the East and the MENA portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Convergence and divergence coexist in the region and are reversible. Except for the West, domestic cyclical 􀀠uctuations are still due to national and idiosyncratic causes. The outlook for the next few years looks rosier for the MENA and the East blocks than for the West.
关键词：Bayesian Methods; Business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Developing;and developed countries.