文章基本信息

标题：Interest rate effects of demographic changes in a New-Keynesian life-cycle framework
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作者：Engin Kara ; Leopold von Thadden
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2010
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper develops a small-scale DSGE model which embeds a demographic structure within a monetary policy framework. We extend the tractable, though non-monetary overlapping-generations model of Gertler (1999) and present a small synthesis model which combines the set-up of Gertler with a New-Keynesian structure, implying that the short-run dynamics related to monetary policy are similar to the paradigm summarized in Woodford (2003). In sum, the model o􀀞ers a New- Keynesian platform which can be used to investigate in a closed economy set-up the response of macroeconomic variables to demographic shocks, similar to technology, government spending or monetary policy shocks. Empirically, we use a calibrated version of the model to discuss a number of macroeconomic scenarios for the euro area with a horizon of around 20 years. The main 􀀟nding is that demographic changes, while contributing slowly over time to a decline in the equilibrium interest rate, are not visible enough within the time horizon relevant for monetary policy-making to require monetary policy reactions.
关键词：Demographic change; Monetary policy; DSGE modelling.