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标题：The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro: an analytical review
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作者：Peter Backé ; Christian Thimann ; Olga Arratibel 等
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2004
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The ten countries joining the European Union in May 2004 are intensively discussing issues related to their future participation in ERM II and the subsequent adoption of the euro. Many of them have tabled concrete strategies for further monetary integration within the EU, elaborating in particular on the intended timing of ERM II entry and euro adoption. In some cases strategies announced in 2001 or 2002 have recently been modified or refined. Most countries appear to be opting for a relatively short participation in ERM II. However, some countries have shifted their preferred euro adoption dates backward by one or two years, compared with their original plans, which in turn implies that ERM II entry is in these cases targeted only some time after EU accession. This paper presents an analytical review of the acceding countries’ strategies towards further monetary integration, with the aim of contributing to the ongoing dialogue with the acceding countries’ central banks. In particular, the paper aims at examining the economic rationale of the strategies declared by most acceding countries so that also potential risks involved can be identified. It is worth noting that this paper does not explore in much detail the benefits of euro adoption per se, as it takes the institutional framework as given, which foresees the introduction of the single currency in the acceding countries at some future point (with no opt-out clauses). Rather, the paper focuses on the timing of euro adoption, i.e. on the economic merits and risks of an early adoption of the euro compared with those of introducing the euro at a later stage, in each of the country cases under consideration.